“War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by other means.”
(carl von Clausewitz)
With advancements in technology, conflict and warfare have evolved. Warfare is categorized according to technological innovations that have evolved. For instance, “first-generation warfare, also called ' line and Column tactics” emphasizes the use of formation and was fought by large armies. Moreover, at this stage, the state held the monopoly on waging war.
Second-generation warfare emerged after the invention of rifles and muskets, introducing greater firepower that was used in WWI. Tactics changed as the technology evolved; third-generation warfare emphasized speed and surprise to bypass enemy lines; confrontation was replaced by maneuver tactics as used in WW2. In the previous generation of warfare, there was a more centralized approach toward warfare, but with the “Revolution of Military Affairs” (RMA), the state’s monopoly on warfare ended due to the involvement of non-state actors in the military and political domain. This fourth generation of warfare includes the usage of all available means, like Social, Economic, and diplomatic means, to gain state-national interest.
According to Carl von Clausewitz, “Every age has its kind of war, its limiting conditions, and its peculiar preconceptions”.
Hybrid Warfare:
Hybrid warfare has gained more attention in recent times, due to the availability of other options to inflict injury on adversaries. It consists of both kinetic and non-kinetic attacks. Hybrid warfare can be defined as the most complex form of warfare, which comprises all national power combined with criminal activities to knock down the adversary slowly and gradually. Frank Hoffman, a renowned hybrid theorist, defined it as “the state or group which uses strategies and tactics in a manner to accomplish its strategic ambition and achieve goals to preserve its security.'' Moreover, he also said that the adversary uses mixed approaches, which can be conventional, irregular, cybercrimes, and criminological to achieve its political objectives. Therefore, it is the mixture of all irregular activities and conventional methods to knock down the adversary, it uses political, conventional, and unconventional methods including diplomacy, proxy support, and mass propaganda via fake news and websites.
Indian Hybrid Warfare against Pakistan:
In contemporary times, Pakistan is facing multiple threats to weaken the state. As former Chief of Army Staff General Bajwa said “ hybrid war is waged against Pakistan to weaken it from within.” He also warned that the enemy’s ambition is to divide them from the inside using ethnicity and identities. According to him, it is clear that they cannot beat us and meet us in a confrontation, so they have adopted this technique. the following domains are being used and exploited by the adversaries using hybrid warfare:
1. Using insurgent groups such as TTP as a proxy tool.
2. Economic warfare, such as using FATF to gray-list Pakistan.
3. Diplomatic means to isolate Pakistan in international forums,
4. Information warfare and propaganda, such as the European Union disinfo lab.
5. Offensive from the irregular forces
6. Cyber-attacks
7. Operations by special forces, such as surgical strikes
8. Operations conducted in the regular military domain, such as the Balakot air strike, Operation Sindoor.
The three main domains which are mostly exploited and used by the adversary to wage war against Pakistan are;
a. Economic
b. Political
c. Societal
Using the economic domain, the enemy aims to weaken Pakistan's economy to such an extent that it is not able to allocate
resources to fulfill its requirements, especially its defense needs. Pakistan is in an arms race with India in terms of nuclear weapons which requires a lot of budgets for maintenance. Therefore, if Pakistan cannot allocate sufficient defense budgets, it would struggle to maintain credible minimum deterrence against India.
Secondly, in the political domain, India is aiming to diplomatically isolate Pakistan. The recent report published by the EU disinformation lab, which is known as “Indian chronicles,” provides clear evidence that India is promoting misinformation and disinformation against Pakistan by using hybrid warfare. Furthermore, India is also lobbying the IMF to push Pakistan into a gray list aimed at weakening Pakistan economically.
Thirdly, at the societal level, adversaries have penetrated many sectors, posing serious implications for Pakistan’s national security. Every year, the sect-based crisis due to identity crisis leads to serious clashes between different groups. On the other hand, the aim of TTP to topple the Pakistan government and bring an Islamic-based system has implications for the national security of Pakistan. In addition to the Indian hybrid warfare has increased both conventional and non-traditional threats while intensifying social, economic, and political challenges to Pakistan’s security. Furthermore, Indian hybrid warfare against Pakistan poses a threat to the deterrence stability of the region.
Recommendations:
Analysts and policy experts on national security recommended many solutions to counter the Indian hybrid warfare against Pakistan. For instance, some experts have suggested that Pakistan needs to raise awareness regarding Indian hybrid warfare among the general public, Media houses, journalists, government officials, and law enforcement agencies. This can be done by using different media of communication, like electronic media, print media, seminars, and social media. Secondly, Pakistan must utilize its media, Think Tank, and academia strategically to build a state narrative and to expose the malevolent Indian policy of waging hybrid warfare. Thirdly, Pakistani policymakers need to identify the gray zones or vulnerable points (loopholes) and develop a comprehensive policy to eliminate these vulnerable areas, as the opponent can easily exploit them.
Finally, Pakistan needs to strengthen its economic security and the living standard of people living in these gray zones like Balochistan and ex-FATA, and the state must guarantee their basic civil rights. Furthermore, Pakistan must work in the diplomatic sector to persuade the international community about how India is using different tactics to destabilize the peace of the entire region. and to show a positive face of Pakistan, this can be done by using various diplomatic channels and engaging the Pakistani diaspora in different states.
