The Middle-East is a region where shifting alliances, unresolved conflicts, and external interventions make the region both central and unpredictable and the region has long stood at the intersection of geo-politics and global security. In recent years, the region is facing the a strategic transition in different forms such as the rise of multi-polar competition, the decline of US primacy and the emergence of non-traditional security challenges like cyber warfare, climate change, and demographic pressures. For global peace, economic security and especially for regional stability the understanding of these trends is essential.
For decades, US were the main outsider power in the region and also behind the shaping of Middle-East the US was unparalleled power. There are some factors that gave Washington the upper hand and guarantee it are US military presence, partnerships with Gulf-states and its roles in security. Its troops, bases and alliances gave it completely unmatched influence. Washington is now focusing more on the Asia as compare to the region of Middle-East and also has reduced its role in the region after long and costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This has opened the doors for other global powers like China is expanding its roots in the Middle-East through the means of trade and big infrastructure projects like BRI. It also helped broker peace talks that would have been unthinkable a decade ago between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Russia is also a country that is active in Syria and sells different weapons to the different countries in the region of Middle-East. This diversity of interests means that the region is dominated not only by one country and shaping towards the multipolar nature with several powers co-operating as well as competing at the same time.
The local countries in the region are also changing their strategies at the same time. The most recent thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran are very surprising. Their rivalry is also reason for causing conflicts for years in the states like Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. While the agreement is still breakable but it has lowered the tensions which give hope for less confrontation. With the Abraham Accords, the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states become another big trend. This brings opportunities for ensuring the security and economic cooperation between governments especially against common threats like Iran. Risks also come with it. The progress of normalization could damage due to violence in GAZA or West Bank and the unresolved Palestinian issue continues to spark the anger. Turkey is another important actor in the region and considers both a partner and a challenger towards the others in the region because it remains part of NATO and in Syria, Libya, or Mediterranean often follows its own path. Still many problems remain unsolved in the Middle-East like the war of Syria drags on, political and economic collapse is faced by Lebanon and the humanitarian crises in Yemen is far from over.
Along with the old rivalries the region is also facing new challenges and threats. As the technology is evolved and changed the battlefield like cyberattacks and drone attacks are common now and even for the groups which are non-states. Drone attacks in 2019 on the Saudi oil facilities showed the region that how vulnerable is to small but powerful tools. Maritime routes are another center point of focus for the Middle-East. The region is considered as a home for maritime passages like Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal and any disturbance here would affect global trade and energy markets. How much fragile these routes are clearly shown through the recent clashes in the Red Sea. Climate change is now becoming a serious security threat for the whole region. Different challenges like extreme rise in temperature, water scarcity, and desertification threaten agriculture could trigger the unrestful conditions for the region. Globally, the region has one of the largest youth populations but without enough jobs, opportunities and frustration among youth lead towards protests or instability in the region.
The events and circumstances happening in Middle-East do not stay in the Middle-East but it can also have effects globally. Oil and gas from the Gulf are playing crucial role in the global economy even as the world moves towards cleaner energy. A crisis in the region has created ripple effects across the world and also can send prices soaring. The maritime points of the region are also critical as about 20% of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz alone and any form of disruption and blockage there would also be felt by Europe, Asia and beyond. Finally, the region is now a stage for the competition between greater powers. The interaction of different greater powers like US, China, and Russia in the region is not only shaping it but also the wider global order.
Both regional and global players need to think differently to build a more stable Middle-East. Only relying on outside powers has not worked for the regional stability but instead of that the regional countries should create their own frame works for cooperation like for dialogue and security purpose. Such efforts are highly demanding from the rival sates like Iran and Turkey. The world’s big powers can cooperate on shared challenges such as climate change, food security, and digital safety and can avoid turning the Middle-East into a battlefield for their competition. Equally it is important that leaders must have to realize that true security is not only about weapons or armies along with that it is also about jobs, educations, and resilience against the climate change. Until and unless these issues are not addressed, the peace deals and alliances will remain brittle.
The Middle-East is now entering into the new phase. The multiple powers are competing in the region for influence and US is no longer dominates the region. The regional countries are facing fresh risks and hurdles in their way when they are showing more independence. New threats from drones to climate change are now changing the way of understandings towards security. The decisions that are made today will decide that whether the regions continue to cycle through wars and crises or there will be cooperation and stability in the region. The stakes could not be higher for Middle-East and also for the world.
