From infrastructure dreams to debt nightmares the dual face of china's BRI. The Belt and Road Initiative BRI was launched not only to promote economic prosperity but also enhance global connectivity across the world. This mega project was developed under the leadership of President Xi Jinping in 2013. The main objectives of china led infrastructure project BRI are building roads, railways, ports, energy projects, stimulating economic growth as well as expanding china's global influence. This initiative emerged hope across developing countries especially in South Asia. It symbolizing the spirit of connectivity and aims to connect china with Asia, Europe and Africa via land and sea routes. So far 139 countries have joined BRI. Over the next decade it became the huge infrastructure, trade and connectivity project. Some china watchers argued that BRI is China's updated and planned grand strategic vision while others claimed that it is strategic plan to gain geopolitical power.
BACKGROUND
The evolution of BRI can be understand by its implementation in South Asia today. For decades China had already been investing in numerous projects either it is domestic or overseas infrastructure project. In the era of Mao Zeodong building and investing in infrastructure was seen as important for Chinese economic success. The difference between earlier projects and the BRI lay in the government's plan to scale up its infrastructure initiatives. However it is said that BRI is outcome of former president Hu Jinto , he expressed china's vision of "common prosperity" and a "harmonious world" in his speech in United Nation. The BRI is a modern strategy whose foundation was laid by previous leaders and articulate by Xi Jinping.
THE BRI'S VISION AND SOUTH ASIA EMBRACE
BRI seeks to revive the ancient silk road by developing land routes and sea routes. South Asia due to its strategic location and developmental needs became a major part in this infrastructure led project. Nation like Nation like Pakistan, India, Srilanka and Bangladesh saw BRI as a huge opportunity to fill infrastructure gaps and accelerate economic growth. For example the china Pakistan economic cooridor CPEC a flagship project that promised to improve transportation and energy infrastructure. Similarly Sri lanka's Hambantota Port and Nepal's Hydropower projects were initiated under BRI framework. Pakistan, India, Srilanka and Bangladesh saw BRI as a huge opportunity to fill infrastructure gaps.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: DEVELOPMENT AID OR DEBT TRAP
China's Belt and Road Initiative BRI has been considered a catalyst for development and on other hand it is criticized as a mechanism for debt entrapment. In South Asia, the dual nature of BRI projects are found. This project is offering infrastructure development while raising concerns about financial sovereignty. Thus, Belt and Road Initiative offers the chance for these countries to unlock the economic potential present in their economies, which have so far been untapped as nations continue to battle the corruption and civil instability ensuing from fragile or non-existent governance institutions. Proponents of the BRI emphasize that it provides a lot of opportunities to developing nations. These projects are seen as avenues for economic growth, job creation, and regional integration.
Take the case of Pakistan, For example the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor established in 2015, CPEC is worth $62 billion and is meant to connect Southwest China to Pakistan. It comprises four different initiatives. One consists of infrastructure projects such as building, improving existing highways and railways across Pakistan. A second initiative includes energy projects such as coal plants and gas and oil pipelines, as well as wind, solar, and hydropower projects throughout Pakistan. The third initiative is the development of Gwadar port. Gwadar is a strategic location for both China and Pakistan on the Arabian Sea, forty-four miles from Iran and less than two hundred miles from Oman—meaning that if China were to route its energy exports to the Gulf through Gwadar, it would save eight thousand miles and provide Xinjiang Province a port much closer than those on China’s east coast.All of this activity has led to the fourth initiative: China and Pakistan have created nine special economic zones in Pakistan around the projects. In that sense, the BRI could bring economic benefits to the country if the investments turn into capital that increase potential output.
But there is no free lunch. Aggregate investment that does not turn into long-term capital is common in poor and middle-income countries. It also poses risks of debt dependency and loss of sovereignty. Sri lanka's experience with the Hambontota Port is often cited, the port financed by Chinese loans failed to generate expected revenue. However, the debt levels accumulated as a result the port was eventually leased out to China. The events in Sri Lanka came as a wake-up call to many countries involved in the BRI. Many analysts speculated that numerous other countries could possibly face the same fate as Sri Lanka, in that vanity projects make the countries more vulnerable to external shocks without bringing much growth in potential output. Those examples explains concerns about BRI projects may prioritize chinas strategic interest over the economic well being of partner countries, leading to a debt trap diplomacy.
To sum up, the BRI stands at a cross roads between promise and peril. For many south Asian countries it has not only opened doors to infrastructure development but also reduces unemployment and promote regional connectivity. The line between development aid and strategic entrapment is often thin and how these nations navigate it will determine whether a BRI bridges the gap of progress or it become a trap of dependency.
