Critical Juncture of South Asia: Stability or Inferno?
An expeditious escalation between Pakistan and India after the Pahalgam event highlights the hostile security landscape of South Asia due to high geographical proximity between two nuclear states. By keeping in view the situation, the United States acted as a ceasefire broker between Pakistan and India after their quick kinetic actions and reactions in May 2025. The Israel-Iran conflict got global attention due to successful de-escalation through multilateral diplomacy in June 2025 but the fragile stability in South Asia underscores the region’s structured distrust and divergent strategic preferences. In the thick of perilous security architecture, Pakistan’s continuous focus on multilateral diplomacy during the July 2025 presidency of the United Nations Security Council diametrically oppose India’s priority of unilateral stance.
This piece contends that Pakistan’s tenacious allegiance to international conventions, diplomatic conciliations, and preferring regional connectivity entitles it as a net regional stabilizer, while India’s continuous hegemonic desires influenced by extremist ideologies and belligerent military policies, makes it a net regional jeopardizer.
Clashing Diplomatic Tendencies
The de-escalation highlighted the diplomatic competition where Pakistan welcomed the mediated role of the U.S. and India strongly rejected this. Pakistani officials objectively gave ceasefire credit to American efforts and nominated President Trump for the Noble Peace Award. While, India’s External Minister denied any external influence in the ceasefire and highlighted the role of direct negotiations in this agreement between Pakistan and India. This competitive nature highlights not only the semantics but a greater ideological fracture.
Pakistan always makes it diplomacy parallel to multilateral norms. During the UNSC Presidency, Islamabad captained the united and amicable resolution for the purpose to promote international collaboration and peaceful settlement of disputes. Moreover, Pakistan has pinned the Kashmir issue to be resolve according to UNSC Resolution by announcing its full fledge support for legal and multilateral structures. The recent statements of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on Israel-Iran ceasefire also underscored the importance of diplomacy and dialogue as sources of conflict resolution, reflecting Pakistan’s perpetual stance. On the other side, India prefers strategic autonomy and unilateral approach by defying the international mediation even in the Kashmir issue which is considered as a nuclear flashpoint. India prioritizes the power gamble for conflict management which closes the avenues of long-lasting peace and stability in South Asia.
Rigid Security Structure: Deterrence versus Dominance in South Asia
Pakistan national security doctrine relies on FSD (Full spectrum deterrence) with an intent to deter conflict through credible response at all spectrums. After the U.S. withdrawal, Pakistan efforts against terrorism intensified through kinetic operations with the purpose to bring regional stability at the expense of significant human and economic loss. For this, Pakistan’s intelligence network diminished the structures of transnational militant. Pakistan was admired by the U.S. for its dedicated efforts against terrorism and its persistent role in mitigating the threat of post-Afghan collapse instability. Pakistan always prefers internal and regional pluralism that reflects its normative commitment towards harmony and peace.
Conversely, India has adopted a continuous aggressive military behaviour. The shift of doctrine from CSD (Cold Start Doctrine) to assertive Modi doctrine to conduct precision strikes which shows the proclivity for speedy, and calculated escalation. These doctrines are strengthened by the allocated defence budget $75 billion in FY 2024-25, which have initiated arms race competition in South Asia. The acquiring of BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence) gives a first mover advantage to India to implement pre-emptive doctrines and increases threats of lowering nuclear threshold by undermining the concept of mutual deterrence.
India’s hybrid warfare against Pakistan makes it ineligible for the position of net regional stabilizer. The EU DisinfoLab report of 2020 revealed a disinformation network of India which was started to defame Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan has provided proofs to the UN related to Indian interference in Baluchistan and KP by supporting insurgencies through intelligence and financial means. The arrest and confession of Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Yadav to conduct subversive operations in Pakistan shows India’s absolute interference.
Battle of 2Cs in Trade: Connectivity vs. Containment
Pakistan has defined its regional approach by prioritizing regional connectivity through infrastructural development and trade in the form of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). It is a flagship project of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and it marks Pakistan’s commitment towards connectivity through promoting trade, provides route to Central Asian states like Afghanistan. This will bring economic autonomy and it will be favourable for peace in the region. Amidst this connectivity efforts, India views CPEC as a threat and do persistent opposition despite its economic potential. India hinders this regional integration and ignores this cooperative skeleton. The continuous opposition to multilateral frameworks by India reflects its containment posture instead of connectivity centric position.
Indo-US strategic partnership is another contributing factor in complicating the security dynamics of South Asia. This partnership intends to counter the rise of China but it also creates spillover effects for the region of South Asia. The growing strategic cooperation between India and U.S. favours India to assert its dominance in South Asia specifically in disputed Kashmir. On the other hand, U.S. mapped out this cooperation as a tool to achieve “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” for Pakistan. It shows specific tilt in South Asia that aggravate strategic imbalance and insecurity.
Reconceptualizing a Balanced South Asian Region
South Asia is standing at a critical turning point of its fate. Opposing security doctrines of Pakistan and India show divergent trajectories: one prioritizing diplomacy, marinating deterrence, and promoting connectivity while the other preferring hegemonic and aggressive behaviour, militarization, and ideological enforcement. Both the states want to seek peace but in their own methods which contradict each other in a comprehensive way.
